Monday, September 15, 2014

Illinois Politics ... Dems are Poised to Win in November

A new poll in Illinois shows incumbent Democrat Governor Pat Quinn holding a commanding lead over his Republican businessman opponent Bruce Rauner.

Illinois is a mess, both politically and financially, but it appears that a majority of the state's citizens will want to keep it that way.

Quinn Has Big Lead in New Poll has the good news for the Illinois Dems:

"A Chicago Tribune poll over the weekend showed Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner by 11 points, which Democrats are hailing as a sign that momentum has swung in their direction. Republicans claim it's an outlier since no major nonpartisan poll all year has shown the governor ahead. The key to the anomalous results appears to be its turnout prediction, which Republicans ignore at their peril.

The Tribune notes that 43% of voters that it sampled identified themselves as Democrats compared to 24% as Republicans, which is "identical to a Tribune poll in fall 2008" when Barack Obama topped the ticket. The Tribune surveyed registered rather than likely voters, so it probably over-sampled Democrats. Republicans are usually more likely to vote in midterms than Democrats and independents.
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn
Democrats constituted 47% of the Illinois electorate in 2008, but just 44% in 2010 and 2012. Republicans made up 32% of voters in 2010, which is about five percentage-points more than in 2008 and 2012. Turnout this November will probably resemble the 2010 midterms more than the last two presidential elections, but this shouldn't provide much consolation to the Rauner campaign.
Gov. Quinn squeaked out re-election by less than a point in 2010 thanks to Speaker Michael Madigan's turnout operations in Chicago. Helping Democrats was the fact that the GOP's get-out-the-vote operation was virtually nonexistent. Mr. Quinn's approval rating then as now was in the mid-30s, and GOP nominee Bill Brady had led by several points in nearly every poll leading up to the election.
Mr. Rauner's campaign is doing more than Mr. Brady's to mobilize Republicans in the so-called collar counties around Chicago. However, our sources say that an ad targeting suburban women in which Mr. Rauner describes himself as pro-choice and pledges not to touch Illinois's same-sex marriage law is turning off cultural conservatives downstate. The Quinn campaign's wall-to-wall ads portraying Mr. Rauner as a mini- Mitt Romney also may be doing some damage.
Meantime, Republican assaults on Mr. Quinn's ethics don't appear to be sticking. Just 30% of voters say that pay-to-play and patronage controversies that Mr. Rauner has linked to the governor make them less likely to re-elect him, according to the Tribune poll. Voters also view the Democrat as more trustworthy than his challenger.
Mr. Rauner ought to be talking more about his plan to fix the state's shaky finances and economy, which is what voters really care about. One lesson from the 2012 presidential election is that voters will re-elect an unpopular incumbent if they don't believe there's a credible alternative."
Summing Up
In free elections voters get the government they choose ands therefore deserve.
And it looks like most Illinois voters want things to remain just the way they are.
How many people go to the polls for each side will determine the winner in November.
That's probably bad news for Rauner supporters.
And it's probably bad news for the future economic health and well being of Illinois and its citizens, both young and old, as well.
That's my take.
Thanks. Bob.

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