Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Two Reasons To Be Bullish on America ... A Combination of More Energy and Less Government Interference

We hear lots of political noise today about the danger of America's best days being behind us. The truth is absolutely otherwise.

Just like we heard that the sequester would be the end of the world, and it wasn't. The government knows best gang got it wrong again.

It seems that with each passing day more of us realize that our elected officials who act as the self annointed and self proclaimed smartest guys in the room aren't so smart after all.

And that, left to our own devices, We the People can get ourselves out of the mess we're in and 'save the middle class' all by ourselves. Sorry about that, Mr. President, but it's true.

In fact, if our government knows best gang would stop interfering with the private sector and thereby cease and desist from doing great, albeit unintentional, harm to our nation's economy, we could get this world leading economic juggernaut headed in the right direction. And at a fast pace, too.

Let's consider energy, for an example. We can quickly become the biggest producer of energy in the world, and all we need to do is to get our government off the back of private sector investors to make that happen. Why let Russia, Venezuela, Iran and the Saudis have all the fun and most of the money from supplying the world's energy needs?

In another important area, we already have the biggest production capability of food in the world, and even after setting aside sufficient land for energy development and distribution, we will still have plenty of remaining land for homes, farms, roads and parks as well.

And finally, we have the U.S. Constitution which protects our individual freedoms and allows for a market based economy where we all have a shot at success, however we choose to define it.

But we'll look specifically at the energy situation herein, since other than our uniquely entrepreneurial culture based on free individuals investing and taking risks, it's the single biggest competitive advantage we have and the strongest reason to be optimistic about our nation's economic future, and our citizens' prosperity and well being.

IEA: Nother American Oil to Dominate World Supply Growth has the details on the outlook for North American energy:

"North American oil production will dominate world-wide supply growth over the next five years, the International Energy Agency predicted Tuesday, the result of growing production from "fracking" and other technologies that access once-inaccessible reserves.

It is a shift that few predicted five years ago, and will come at the expense of producers like members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that for years have dominated the industry. . . .

The latest forecast marks a shift in the IEA's previous thinking, which saw supply growth split between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the medium term. The fast U.S. supply growth has diminished U.S. demand for oil from OPEC members like Nigeria, and in the long term, growing U.S. exports of oil and natural gas could further weaken OPEC, says Amy Myers Jaffe, who studies energy and the oil industry at the University of California at Davis but didn't know the contents of the IEA report.

The IEA, which represents the interests of large, energy-consuming countries, last year forecast that the U.S. could become the world's biggest oil producer by 2020, overtaking OPEC giant Saudi Arabia, though possibly only temporarily.

The surprise upswing in North American production in recent years is the result of faster-than-expected development of resources locked in shale and other tight rock formations in the country, and has changed expectations of future supply and demand world-wide.
According to the IEA, average North American production is expected to grow by 3.9 million barrels a day between 2012 and 2018, accounting for more than half of the increase in non-OPEC production for the period.

Meanwhile, the producers that have historically dominated the oil market face a difficult period as demand for OPEC's oil is expected to slip in the coming years.

As of this year, the IEA expects demand for OPEC oil to fall below 30 million barrels a day—the organization's self-imposed production ceiling. IEA expects that trend to endure until 2018.
The continuing dynamic is "a recipe for crashing prices unless OPEC countries can coordinate in restricting their production in a way they haven't in a long time," said Michael Levi, who studies the effects of growth in U.S. energy production for the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations but didn't know the contents of the IEA report. . . .

According to the IEA's projections, average OPEC production capacity will rise by 1.75 million barrels a day between 2012 and 2018 to reach 36.75 million barrels a day by the end of the period. The previous estimate pegged OPEC production capacity between 2011 and 2017 to grow 3.34 million barrels a day to 37.54 million barrels a day in 2017.

These changes coupled with the continuing rise in Asian demand will have a profound impact on the market over the next five years, the IEA said.

"There is hardly any aspect of the global oil supply chain that will not undergo some measure of transformation over the next five years, with significant consequences for the global economy and oil security," the IEA said."

Summing Up

The future is ours if we can just get the government to stop playing silly and harmful politics with energy.

Why we want to reward Russia, Venezuela, Iran and the Saudis by not developing our energy capabilities to the hilt is beyond me.

That's why I'm optimistic that in the end we'll do the right thing.

I just wish the end would get here faster.

Our people and our economy deserve nothing less.

Thanks. Bob.

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