The plain fact is that when they say these things, they are speaking with forked tongue. And while that political gang of falsely promising would-be saviors of America pretty much includes one and all of the current crop of vote seekers, it's especially true of Donald and Hillary, one of whom, and most likely Hillary, will be our next U.S. President and commander-in-chief.
But on the assumption that knowing the truth is better than not knowing the truth and that facts are both good and stubborn things, let's review a few of the truths and facts compared to the falsehoods being spoken daily on the campaign trial.
The Economy Is Rigged, and Other Presidential Campaign Myths by Harvard professor of economics Gregory Mankiw sets the record straight for those among us who are interested in unvarnished reality versus political fantasy:
"If
you want to learn about the economy, there are good and bad places to
go. Probably the worst source of reliable information is the current
crop of presidential candidates. Dissembling and exaggeration are no
strangers to politics, but this year’s campaigns have been particularly
egregious.
Here are six economic myths that underlie much of the recent rhetoric.
1- American manufacturing has disappeared.
The presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, says,
“We don’t make things anymore.” Judging from the surprising success of
Mr. Trump’s campaign, this theme apparently resonates with many voters.
But it is just not true.
When
do you think manufacturing output reached its peak in the United
States? The answer: right now. Manufacturing output achieved a record high in the most recent quarter of data. The nation’s manufacturers are now producing 47 percent more than they did 20 years ago.
What has declined is manufacturing employment,
which is 29 percent lower than it was 20 years ago. Producing more
output with fewer workers is called higher productivity, which in turn
is driven by technological innovation. This change is hard on displaced
workers, but it is good for the economy over all. Rising living
standards are possible only if productivity increases.
2- Bad trade deals are what ails the economy.
Mr.
Trump says he would negotiate better trade deals. Bernie Sanders brags
about voting against the trade deals of the past. Hillary Clinton has
split with President Obama and withdrawn her support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The
experts have a different view. Among those who devote their lives to
studying the economy, there is a broad consensus about the overall
benefits of free trade and trade deals. Of course, trade hasn’t been a
boon for people who have lost their jobs because of foreign competition.
But in 2014, the University of Chicago’s IGM Panel
surveyed prominent economists about whether “past major trade deals
have benefited most Americans.” A few respondents were uncertain, but
most said yes. Not a single economist responded in the negative.
3- The economy is rigged.
To
be sure, we live in challenging times. Meager growth and rising
inequality have resulted in stagnant incomes for much of the working
class and declining incomes for those with the lowest levels of
education....
But the economy is a complex, decentralized system. Many outcomes are under no one’s control.
Technological
change, for instance, is an emergent process reflecting the decisions
of thousands of engineers and entrepreneurs. Growth slows when the pace
of innovation falls below historical norms. Inequality rises when the
innovations that do occur are used by skilled workers and replace
unskilled workers. Such skill-biased technological change, as economists
call it, is widely considered a leading cause of the increasing inequality the United States has experienced in recent decades.
4- The rich don’t pay much in taxes.
In
an era of great inequality, it is natural for politicians to demonize
the rich. And some top earners don’t pay enough in taxes . . . .
But don’t confuse these exceptions, even if they are glaring ones, with the general rule. The Congressional Budget Office estimates
that under the 2013 tax law, which is still in effect today, the top 1
percent pays 33 percent of its income in federal taxes. By contrast, the
middle class (defined here as the middle three-fifths of the income
distribution) pays only 13 percent of its income in federal taxes.
5- Tax cuts will unleash stupendous growth. . . .
Mr. Trump’s assertion that he can easily fill the hole in the
budget by eliminating “waste, fraud and abuse” is one of the least
credible claims of the election year.
6- The next president can quickly fix all of our problems.
All
candidates like to offer themselves as panaceas. “Vote for me and the
economy will skyrocket, the poor will see riches without bound and that
annoying wart on your foot will finally disappear.” Yet the power of the
president — or even the entire government — is more limited than is
often acknowledged.
Yes,
there are things that can be done. A better education system, for
example, would both promote growth and ameliorate inequality. But there
is no magic bullet to improve our schools, and even if we succeeded, the
economic impact would be felt slowly over many years.
Just
once, I would like to see a candidate with a platform of humility:
“Vote for me. If elected president, I won’t make a nuisance of myself.”
That
doesn’t offer the inspiring vision of greatness that we have come to
expect from our presidents. But by expecting too much, we set ourselves
up for the inevitable disappointment that follows."
Summing Up
Fiction is often much more entertaining and even preferable to knowing the truth, but truth and reality are always by far and away the more important things to know.
And so it is with politics, the economy, international trade, productivity, technology, manufacturing, who pays the taxes, presidential power and countless other important matters being misrepresented on the campaign trail again this year.
And that's why I strongly believe that politics sucks and that We the People, each acting in a free society and economy to achieve great gains in knowledge and productivity, inevitably accompanied by the prosperity that they will bring, are the only lasting and acceptable answers to our many problems.
Our long-in-the-making problems aren't going to be easy to solve, but the solutions are indeed simple ones.
We the People are in charge, so let's get started.
That's my take.
Thanks. Bob.
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